risk-warning-catalysts（风险预警催化剂）

Risk Warning Catalysts

Convert research into a live monitoring framework.

Non-Negotiable Rules

• Every risk and catalyst must point to a public source and a monitorable trigger.
• Distinguish confirmed events from watch items.
• Use thresholds where possible, not vague language.
• Do not turn monitoring points into valuation conclusions here.
• Default every intermediate and final output to Simplified Chinese unless the user explicitly requests another language.

Read First

• skills/shared/references/source-registry.md
• skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md
• skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md
• skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md
• skills/shared/templates/catalyst-calendar.md
• skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/monitoring-dashboard.md
• If the company is project-driven or asset-ramp sensitive, also load the matching shared overlay.
• If the company is an IDC or AI-compute case, skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md and skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/idc-monitoring-indicators.md are optional example overlays.

When to Use

• Build a watchlist after a deep-dive report.
• Track whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
• Prepare a monthly or event-driven update process.

Workflow

1. Pull the latest announcements and identify what changed since the last report.
2. Map risks by category: execution, finance, governance, policy, customer, technology, litigation.
3. Map catalysts by category: orders, policy, financing, asset disposals, utilization, margin improvement.
4. Attach a threshold, expected evidence source, and review frequency to each item.
5. Build a monthly dashboard and catalyst calendar.

Required Output

• 事实: confirmed risks, confirmed catalysts, last update status
• 解读: which factors matter most to the thesis and why
• 待验证问题: which missing data points could change the signal
• Dashboard: metric, threshold, latest value, source, next check date

Boundaries

• Do not restate the full strategy review.
• Do not recalculate all financial ratios unless needed for a monitor.
• Do not produce target price or position sizing.