- name
- stablecoin-depeg-scanner
- description
- Evaluate stablecoin depeg events for crisis arbitrage opportunities. Use when a user mentions a stablecoin crash, depeg, exploit, hack, or asks whether to buy a depegged stablecoin. Triggers on keywords like "depeg", "depegged", "stablecoin crash", "脱锚", "稳定币暴跌", "稳定币脱钩", "能不能抄底", "mint exploit", "USR", "UST", "should I buy", "black swan", "黑天鹅".
Stablecoin Depeg Scanner 🔍
3-minute crisis arbitrage evaluator. When a stablecoin loses its peg, run the assessment to decide: buy, watch, or avoid.
Philosophy
Depeg = panic pricing. The question is NOT "is it safe" but "is the discount bigger than the real damage?" Small position, high odds, asymmetric payoff.
Quick Start
When user mentions a stablecoin depeg event:
Step 1: Run the automated evaluator (60 seconds)
cd SKILL_DIR && python scripts/depeg_eval.py <COIN> --capital <USER_CAPITAL><COIN>: CoinGecko ID or symbol (e.g.,resolv-usr,USR,DAI)--capital: User's total available capital in USD (default: 5000)--peg: Target peg price if not $1.00 (default: 1.0)
The script auto-fetches: current price, market cap, TVL from DefiLlama, and calculates odds + position size.
Replace SKILL_DIR with the resolved absolute path of this SKILL.md's parent directory.
Step 2: Complete exploit analysis (60 seconds)
The script outputs a checklist. Use web_search to answer these questions:
- Was collateral stolen or was it a mint/logic exploit?
- Search: "<coin_name> exploit PeckShield" or "<coin_name> hack SlowMist" - Mint/logic exploit (collateral intact) → bullish - Collateral drained → bearish
- Has the team responded?
- Check their Twitter for pause announcement - Response within 1h → good sign - Silent >6h → red flag
- Is the bug fixable?
- Smart contract bug with clear fix → recovery likely - Fundamental design flaw → avoid
Step 3: Adjust and deliver recommendation (60 seconds)
Based on exploit analysis, adjust the script's score:
- Collateral confirmed intact → score +10
- Team responded fast with plan → score +10
- Collateral partially stolen → score -10
- No team response → score -20
- Algorithmic stablecoin / no real backing → score -50 (AVOID regardless)
Deliver final recommendation with:
- Action: BUY / WATCH / AVOID
- Position size in USD
- Entry price range
- Exit target
- Stop condition
Decision Framework
For detailed scoring logic, exploit type analysis, historical benchmarks, and red/green flags, read references/decision-framework.md.
Output Format (to user)
🔍 稳定币脱锚评估: <SYMBOL>
📊 价格:
• 当前: $X.XX | 锚定: $1.00 | 偏离: XX%
• 赔率: X.Xx
🏦 抵押物:
• TVL: $XXM (较昨日 -X%)
• 状态: 完整/部分损失/已掏空
🔐 攻击分析:
• 类型: 铸造漏洞/预言机/抵押物被盗
• 团队响应: 已暂停/未回应
• 可修复性: 高/中/低
📋 结论:
• 操作: 🟢买入 / 🟡观望 / 🔴回避
• 仓位: $XXX (总资金X%)
• 目标: $X.XX
• 止损条件: XXXKey Rules
- Speed over perfection — 3 minutes, not 30 minutes. First-mover advantage is everything.
- TVL is truth — DefiLlama TVL > official statements. Contracts don't lie.
- Small positions only — Never >6% of capital on a single depeg bet.
- Algorithmic = death — No real collateral = no recovery. Luna/UST is the permanent lesson.
- Exit plan before entry — Know your sell condition before buying.