- name
- Scenario Forecaster
- description
- AI-driven event forecasting skill. Collects multi-source data, cross-validates facts, maps future scenarios with probabilities, and delivers actionable recommendations for investors, managers, and policymakers.
Scenario Forecaster
Stop guessing. Start forecasting. Let AI systematically map every possible future path and give you a tailored action checklist.
Core Capabilities
| Feature | Description |
|---|
| Multi-source data | News, academic papers, social media sentiment, government reports |
| Cross-validation | Verify facts across 2+ independent sources with confidence ratings |
| PESTEL analysis | Structured driver identification across 6 dimensions |
| Scenario mapping | Generate 3-5 logically self-consistent future paths |
| Probability assessment | Bayesian-informed probability estimates per scenario |
| Role-based recommendations | Tailored do/don't lists for investors, managers, policymakers |
Execution Protocol
- Collect - Gather information from 5 source types
- Validate - Cross-check facts, rate confidence
- Analyze - Identify drivers using PESTEL framework
- Map scenarios - Build paths with triggers and milestones
- Assess probability - Assign Bayesian-informed estimates
- Recommend - Generate role-specific action checklists
Input Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|
| event_description | string | required | Event or topic to forecast |
| time_horizon | string | 6 months | Forecast period |
| focus_dimensions | list | Economic, Political, Technological | PESTEL dimensions |
| num_paths | int | 3 | Number of scenario paths (3-5) |
Quick Start
Forecast: Impact of Fed rate cuts over 6 months on global tech stocks.
Focus: Economic and Technological dimensions.
Full example in examples/output_fed_rate.md.
