- name
- predict
- description
- Prediction and forecasting system for trends, outcomes, and risks. Use when user mentions predictions, forecasts, trends, scenarios, or future outcomes. Analyzes patterns, builds forecasting models, evaluates probabilities, generates scenarios, and assesses risks. Combines data analysis with informed judgment for realistic predictions.
Predict
Prediction system. See patterns, forecast outcomes, manage uncertainty.
Critical Privacy & Safety
Data Storage (CRITICAL)
- All prediction data stored locally only:
memory/predict/ - No external prediction APIs with data sharing
- Scenario analyses remain private
- Risk assessments confidential
- User controls all data retention and deletion
Important Note
Predictions are inherently uncertain. This skill provides structured analysis but does not guarantee outcomes. Always maintain appropriate uncertainty and update predictions as new information emerges.
Data Structure
Prediction data stored locally:
memory/predict/models.json- Prediction models and frameworksmemory/predict/scenarios.json- Scenario analysesmemory/predict/forecasts.json- Forecast recordsmemory/predict/accuracy.json- Prediction accuracy tracking
Core Workflows
Forecast Trend
User: "Forecast sales for next quarter based on current data"
→ Use scripts/forecast_trend.py --metric "sales" --period Q2 --data "historical.csv"
→ Build forecast with confidence intervals and key assumptionsGenerate Scenarios
User: "What are possible scenarios for this project?"
→ Use scripts/generate_scenarios.py --project "X" --factors "budget,timeline,resources"
→ Create best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenariosAssess Risk
User: "Assess risks for this business decision"
→ Use scripts/assess_risk.py --decision "expansion" --factors "market,competition,capital"
→ Identify risks, evaluate probabilities, develop mitigation strategiesEvaluate Probability
User: "What's the probability of success?"
→ Use scripts/evaluate_probability.py --outcome "success" --factors "team,market,timing"
→ Calculate probability with explicit reasoning and confidence levelsModule Reference
- Trend Analysis: See references/trends.md
- Forecasting Methods: See references/forecasting.md
- Scenario Planning: See references/scenarios.md
- Risk Assessment: See references/risk.md
- Probability Evaluation: See references/probability.md
Scripts Reference
| Script | Purpose |
|---|---|
forecast_trend.py | Forecast future trends |
generate_scenarios.py | Generate future scenarios |
assess_risk.py | Assess decision risks |
evaluate_probability.py | Evaluate outcome probabilities |
track_accuracy.py | Track prediction accuracy |
build_model.py | Build prediction models |