The Pre-Mortem Framework
"If you do a pre-mortem right, you will not have to do an ugly post-mortem." — Shreyas Doshi
What It Is
Instead of waiting for a post-mortem after a failure, the team imagines the project has already failed spectacularly in the future and works backward to determine why. This uncovers hidden risks that polite corporate culture usually suppresses.
When To Use
- Before kicking off any major initiative
- Prior to product launch or high-stakes project
- When team has optimism bias or is avoiding hard conversations
- To create psychological safety for voicing concerns
Core Principles
1. The Prompt
Start by stating: "Imagine it is 6 months from now and this project has failed miserably."
2. Categorize Risks
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
| 🐯 Tigers | Fatal threats that can kill the project |
| 📄 Paper Tigers | Perceived but fake threats (fear without substance) |
| 🐘 Elephants | Unspoken truths everyone avoids discussing |
3. Cross-Team Voting
Have team members vote on the scariest tiger identified by *someone else* — this surfaces risks without political defensiveness.
How To Apply
STEP 1: Set the Scene (5 min)
└── "It's 6 months from now. This project failed spectacularly."
└── "What went wrong?"
STEP 2: Silent Brainstorm (10 min)
└── Each person writes 3-5 failure scenarios
└── No discussion during writing
STEP 3: Share & Categorize (15 min)
└── Read aloud and tag as Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant
└── Group similar themes
STEP 4: Vote (5 min)
└── Each person votes on TOP 2 scariest Tigers
└── RULE: You cannot vote for your own
STEP 5: Action Plan (15 min)
└── For each top Tiger: assign owner and mitigationCommon Mistakes
❌ Treating it as a standard risk assessment without the "imagined failure" prompt
❌ Allowing senior leaders to dominate discussion (kills psychological safety)
❌ Not following up on identified risks post-session
Real-World Example
Shreyas used this at Stripe for major launches to surface "elephants"—like questioning if a PR splash would actually result in sustained user adoption.
*Source: Shreyas Doshi, Lenny's Podcast*