Pipeline Forecasting
B2B sales forecasting frameworks and deal scoring models.
Forecast Categories
| Category | Definition | Weight |
|---|
| Commit | Will close this period | 90% |
| Best Case | High probability, some risk | 70% |
| Pipeline | Working, outcome uncertain | 30% |
| Upside | Long shot, possible | 10% |
Weighted Pipeline
Weighted Pipeline = Σ (Deal Value × Stage Probability × Confidence)
Example:
$100K deal in Proposal (40%) with High confidence (1.1x)
= $100K × 0.4 × 1.1 = $44K weighted
Forecast Accuracy Metrics
| Metric | Formula | Target |
|---|
| Forecast Accuracy | Actual / Forecast | 90-110% |
| Commit Accuracy | Commit Closed / Commit Forecast | >85% |
| Best Case Accuracy | BC Closed / BC Forecast | >60% |
| Pipeline Accuracy | Pipeline Closed / Pipeline Forecast | >25% |
Weekly Forecast Review Template
FORECAST REVIEW: [Date]
Commit: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [Status/Risk]
- [Deal 2]: $X - [Status/Risk]
Best Case: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [What needs to happen]
Pipeline: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- At risk: [List]
- Upside: [List]
Total Weighted: $[X]
vs. Target: $[X]
Gap: $[X]
Actions This Week:
1. [Specific action on deal]
2. [Specific action on deal]
Deal Scoring Model
Score Components
| Factor | Weight | Scoring |
|---|
| ICP Fit | 20% | 3=Perfect, 2=Good, 1=Marginal, 0=Off |
| Champion | 25% | 3=Active, 2=Supportive, 1=Identified, 0=None |
| Authority | 20% | 3=Buyer engaged, 2=Identified, 1=Unknown, 0=Blocked |
| Need | 15% | 3=Urgent, 2=Important, 1=Nice-to-have, 0=None |
| Timeline | 10% | 3=This quarter, 2=Next quarter, 1=This year, 0=None |
| Competition | 10% | 3=None/weak, 2=Incumbent, 1=Strong, 0=Losing |
Score Interpretation
- 85-100%: High confidence commit
- 70-84%: Best case
- 50-69%: Standard pipeline
- <50%: At risk, qualify harder
