Skill: ib_trade-osint
Purpose
This skill implements a fully automated, trading-specific Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) cycle. It transforms raw public information into actionable, trade-relevant intelligence by prioritizing recency, source authority, and probable market impact.
Core Mandates
- Recency First: Prioritize information from the last 24–48 hours. Max window is 14 days.
- PRIO-A Dominance: Official releases, news wires, and primary market-moving sources (PRIO A) must be checked first before moving to lower-priority discovery (PRIO B, C, D).
- No Trade Without Catalyst: Do not recommend trades based on noise. Only high-impact, corroborated catalysts survive the prefilter.
- Adversarial Interrogation: Treat every signal as a hypothesis. Corroborate across independent sources before confirming a "high impact" score.
1. The Intelligence Cycle
The cycle consists of six continuous phases:
- Planning: Define the objective (e.g., "Identify AI supply chain shocks in the next 72h").
- Collection: 70% controlled (user-curated) / 30% open discovery.
- Processing: Cleaning, normalization, deduplication, and entity extraction (tickers, sectors, regions).
- Evaluation: Apply the 4x4 Priority x Impact Matrix.
- Analysis: Identify first/second-order causal chains and directional (Bullish/Bearish) implications.
- Dissemination: Produce machine-readable intelligence candidates for the Analysis skill.
2. Source Priority Taxonomy
- PRIO A (Primary): SEC filings, official press releases, news wires, regulatory/government notices.
- PRIO B (Market Structure): Market data, earnings calendars, analyst revisions, options flow.
- PRIO C (Contextual): Specialist industry reporting, security research, trade publications.
- PRIO D (Discovery): Social chatter, minor blogs, forums (Weak signals only).
3. The Prefilter Matrix (4x4)
Score every event to decide if it survives for analysis:
| Priority \ Impact | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRIO A | Watchlist Link only | Retain & Map | Immediate Escalation |
| PRIO B | Context only | Retain | Immediate Escalation |
| PRIO C | Archive | Context | Corroboration Required |
| PRIO D | Ignore | Queue | Alert Only |
4. Scoring Logic (Thresholds)
- Score (0-15+): Sum of weights (Priority: A=4, B=3, C=2, D=1; Impact: High=4, Med=3, Low=2; Directness: Ticker=3, Sector=2).
- 12+: High-conviction intelligence candidate.
- 9-11: Retain for fusion.
- <9: Archive or discard.
5. Decision Translation
- Buy/Sell Now: High-conviction (12+) + Bullish/Bearish direction + Direct Ticker impact.
- Limit Order: High-conviction + Directional edge + Volatility/Price dislocation.
- Watch: Low-conviction or mixed signals.
6. Target Intelligence Schema (JSON/YAML)
Every result must include:
ticker: Affected asset(s).catalyst_score: Numerical value based on the prefilter.direction:bullish,bearish, ormixed.impact_horizon:0-24h,24-72h, or7d.confidence:confirmed,probable, orpossible.source_refs: List of URLs or source IDs.