Earnings Revenue Guidance
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from earnings call transcripts with detailed breakdowns by segment, currency impact, and M&A contributions.
Prerequisites
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured. See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
Workflow
Step 1: Extract Revenue Guidance
Use the Octagon MCP to extract revenue guidance:
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call transcript.
Step 2: Targeted Revenue Analysis
Focus on specific aspects of revenue guidance:
# Total Revenue
Extract total revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call.
# Segment Revenue
Extract segment-level revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
# Organic vs. M&A
Separate organic revenue guidance from M&A contribution in <TICKER>'s earnings call.
# Currency Impact
What is the FX impact on <TICKER>'s revenue guidance?
# Subscription Revenue
Extract recurring revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings call.
# Growth Rates
Extract revenue growth rate guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
Expected Output
The skill returns structured revenue guidance including:
| Component | Description |
|---|
| Revenue Range | Dollar guidance (low-high) |
| Growth Rate | Nominal YoY growth percentage |
| Constant Currency | FX-adjusted growth rate |
| Segment Breakdown | Revenue by business unit |
| M&A Contribution | Acquisition impact on growth |
| Source Citations | Transcript page references |
Example Query
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from CRM's latest earnings call transcript.
Example Response
Salesforce (CRM) provided the following revenue guidance and growth projections in its Q3 2026 earnings call transcript:
Revenue Guidance
| Metric | Range | Growth Rate (Nominal) | Growth Rate (Constant Currency) |
|---|
| Total Revenue | $41.15B - $41.25B | 9.00% | 8.00% |
| Total Revenue (with Informatica) | $41.545B - $41.55B | 9.00% - 10.00% | 9.00% |
Subscription & Support Revenue
- Anticipated growth: Slightly under 10.00% year-over-year in constant currency
- Informatica contribution: +0.80 percentage points to growth
Source: CRM_Q32026, Page: 6
Revenue Guidance Components
Total Revenue
| Component | Description |
|---|
| Range Low | Conservative estimate |
| Range High | Optimistic estimate |
| Midpoint | Implied expectation |
| Growth Rate | YoY percentage change |
Segment Revenue
| Segment Type | Examples |
|---|
| Product Lines | Cloud, Hardware, Services |
| Business Units | Enterprise, SMB, Consumer |
| Revenue Type | Subscription, Perpetual, Services |
| Geography | Americas, EMEA, APAC |
Growth Rate Types
| Type | Description |
|---|
| Reported (Nominal) | As-reported in local currency |
| Constant Currency | FX-adjusted growth |
| Organic | Excluding M&A |
| Pro Forma | As if M&A included in prior period |
Currency Impact Analysis
Understanding FX Effects
| FX Scenario | Revenue Impact | Growth Rate |
|---|
| USD Strong | Lower reported | Reported < CC |
| USD Weak | Higher reported | Reported > CC |
| Neutral | No impact | Reported = CC |
Calculating Currency Impact
Example:
- Reported Growth: 9.00%
- Constant Currency Growth: 8.00%
- FX Tailwind: 9.00% - 8.00% = +1.00pp
Interpretation: Currency added 1 percentage point to reported growth
M&A Contribution Analysis
Separating Organic from Inorganic
| Component | Calculation |
|---|
| Total Growth | Reported YoY change |
| M&A Contribution | Acquired revenue / prior base |
| Organic Growth | Total Growth - M&A Contribution |
Example Breakdown
Total Growth: 10.00%
M&A Contribution: +0.80pp (Informatica)
Organic Growth: 10.00% - 0.80% = 9.20%
Key Insight: Underlying business growing at 9.2%
Segment Guidance Framework
Segment Revenue Table
| Segment | Guidance | Growth | Mix |
|---|
| Cloud | $25B | +15% | 60% |
| Services | $10B | +5% | 25% |
| Other | $6B | +2% | 15% |
| Total | $41B | +10% | 100% |
Mix Shift Analysis
| Trend | Implication |
|---|
| High-growth segment gaining share | Positive for overall growth |
| High-margin segment gaining share | Positive for profitability |
| Declining segment shrinking | Healthy portfolio management |
| All segments growing | Broad-based strength |
Guidance Range Analysis
Range Width Interpretation
| Range Width | Confidence Level |
|---|
| < 1% of midpoint | Very high confidence |
| 1-2% of midpoint | High confidence |
| 2-3% of midpoint | Moderate confidence |
| > 3% of midpoint | Low confidence, high variability |
Midpoint Calculation
Example:
Range: $41.15B - $41.25B
Midpoint: ($41.15B + $41.25B) / 2 = $41.20B
Range Width: $41.25B - $41.15B = $0.10B
% of Midpoint: $0.10B / $41.20B = 0.24%
Interpretation: Very tight range, high confidence
Tracking Revenue Guidance
Quarter-over-Quarter Changes
| Period | Guidance | Change | Signal |
|---|
| Q1 FY26 | $40.5B | Initial | Baseline |
| Q2 FY26 | $40.8B | +$0.3B | Raised |
| Q3 FY26 | $41.2B | +$0.4B | Raised |
| Full Year | $165B | | Annual |
Guidance Revision Analysis
| Revision | Interpretation |
|---|
| Raised | Positive momentum |
| Maintained | On track |
| Narrowed | Increased visibility |
| Lowered | Challenges |
| Widened | Decreased visibility |
Use Cases
- Model Updates: Feed revenue guidance into financial models
- Consensus Comparison: Compare to Street estimates
- Organic Growth Tracking: Separate core growth from M&A
- FX Impact Analysis: Understand currency effects
- Segment Trends: Track business unit performance
- Beat/Miss Prediction: Anticipate earnings outcomes
Combining with Other Skills
| Skill | Combined Analysis |
|---|
| analyst-estimates | Guidance vs. consensus |
| income-statement | Historical revenue trends |
| earnings-financial-guidance | Full guidance context |
| revenue-product-segmentation | Segment validation |
| stock-price-change | Guidance impact on price |
Analysis Tips
- Track Organic Growth: Strip out M&A and FX for true trends
- Compare to Consensus: Is guidance above or below Street?
- Watch Range Width: Narrow = confident, wide = uncertain
- Note Revisions: Raising or lowering tells you direction
- Segment Focus: Which segments driving growth?
- Historical Accuracy: Does management typically beat guidance?
Interpreting Results
See references/interpreting-results.md for detailed guidance on analyzing revenue guidance.
