Discover Assumptions and Experiments
Overview
Surface the riskiest assumptions in an Opportunity Solution Tree and design the smallest tests that can prove or disprove them quickly.
Position in Workflow
Step 4 of product strategy workflow:
/discover-outcomes- Define outcomes/discover-opportunities- Identify opportunities/ideate-solutions- Explore solution concepts/discover-assumptions- Validate with experiments (THIS)
Inputs (ask if missing, max 5)
- Target node(s): outcome, opportunity, or solution
- Target users/market
- Existing evidence (data, research, learnings)
- Constraints (time, budget, ethics, legal)
- Decision deadline
Assumption Types
- Desirability: Users want or value it
- Usability: Users can use it successfully
- Feasibility: We can build/deliver it
- Viability: It supports the business model
- Risk/Compliance/Ethics: It is safe and allowed
- Strategic: It aligns with goals and positioning
Workflow
- List assumptions per node
- Write assumptions as testable statements.
- Score risk
- Impact (low/medium/high) x uncertainty (low/medium/high). - Note current evidence strength (none/weak/moderate/strong).
- Prioritize
- Select top 3-5 riskiest assumptions.
- Design experiments
- Propose 2+ tests per assumption, fastest/cheapest first. - Define hypothesis, method, sample, success metric, and decision threshold.
- Sequence tests
- Start with tests that can invalidate assumptions quickly.
Experiment Patterns (examples)
- Customer interviews, observation, diary studies
- Survey with behavioral intent + follow-up validation
- Smoke test or landing page
- Fake-door or click-through test
- Concierge or Wizard-of-Oz pilot
- Prototype usability test
- A/B test or pricing experiment
- Limited rollout with manual operations
Output Format
## Assumption Discovery
### Context Summary
[1-3 sentences]
### Assumptions (by node)
- Node: [Outcome/Opportunity/Solution]
- Assumption: ... (type: desirability)
- Evidence: ... (strength: weak)
- Risk: impact high x uncertainty high
### Top Risks
1) Assumption: ...
- Why risky: ...
### Experiments
1) Assumption: ...
- Hypothesis: ...
- Method: ...
- Sample: ...
- Success metric: ...
- Decision threshold: ...
- Time/cost: ...
### Sequenced Plan
1) ...
2) ...
### Open Questions
- ...
### Next Step
If assumptions are validated, proceed to product planning.Quick Reference
- Turn beliefs into testable statements.
- Prefer tests that can disprove the assumption fast.
- Document decision thresholds before running tests.
Common Mistakes
- Treating opinions as evidence
- Testing solutions before validating the underlying assumption
- Running expensive tests without cheap falsification attempts
- Vague hypotheses or missing thresholds